UK ad spend will fall by nearly £1.4bn in 2019 in the event of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, according to latest predictions.

Enders Analysis says it will be the first time the country’s £23bn ad market has contracted in more than 10 years – down 3% to £22.54bn.

However, the firm also modelled a ‘deal’ scenario, in which the market would still grow in 2019 (up 2.7% to £23.9bn) but would still be down on 2018 growth (4.7%).

A no deal scenario, meanwhile, would see a stagnation in online display ad spend, which has seen robust growth over the last decade.

The last time the UK ad market contracted was in 2009, when it slumped 13% in the wake of the global financial crisis.

However, Enders has cautioned against brands rolling back ad spend too drastically:

“The advertiser response will be to become more tactical in allocating advertising spend, but evidence from the last recession suggests that ‘going dark’ with brand display spend can be a long-lasting mistake.”