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IPA Bellwether Report

Marketing budgets in the UK remain on the up
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Total UK marketing budgets were revised up in Q3 2023, extending the current sequence of upward spending revisions to ten successive quarters, according to the latest IPA Bellwether Report, which reveals that this quarter’s overall growth was driven by upward revisions to the main media category.

The report also reveals that there was, however, a moderation of the upturn as persistent inflationary pressures, further increases in borrowing costs and a subsequent deterioration in the UK economic outlook drove some companies to be more cautious with their budgets.

While 21.1% of Bellwether firms increased their total marketing spending in the three months to October, a sizeable 15.8% registered a downgraded budget. This resulted in a net balance of +5.3%, pointing to the weakest quarter of total marketing budget growth since the final quarter of 2022 (down from +6.4% in Q2).

According to panel members that registered growth, marketing activities were deployed both as a defensive and offensive manoeuvre, with some hoping to reinforce their brand’s position in the market ahead of a downturn in the UK economy. Efforts to seize additional market share was seen at companies who were seeing key competitors prioritise short-term cost-savings over long-term business growth.

Supporting this, the main media advertising category was the strongest-performing segment of the Bellwether survey in Q3 as a robust net balance of +7.4% of companies upwardly revised spending in this crucial segment at the strongest rate in a year-and-a-half (-2.5% previously). This contrasted markedly with the Q2 report, where sales promotions budgets drove the upturn as cost-of-living pressures drove companies to provide support to cash-strapped customers. Within main media, other online advertising methods that aren’t captured by the other sub-categories rose sharply (net balance of +9.1%, vs. +8.3% previously) as companies engaged with new innovative tools such as artificial intelligence. Video (+0.9%, from +3.2%) and published brands (+0.8%, from -5.0%) were the other areas of expansion within main media, whereas audio (-10.8%, from -8.0%) and out of home (-12.1%, from -7.1%) saw contractions accelerate.

Events continued to be an area of marketing budget growth in the third quarter, continuing its strong sequence of expansion seen in every Bellwether Report since the opening quarter of 2022. A net balance of +5.9% of companies saw an increase in spending in this area (from +9.8%), with anecdotal evidence indicating a resilient appetite for engagement with clients and prospects face-to-face.

Other areas of budget growth included direct marketing (net balance of +4.3%, from +7.3%) and public relations (+4.0, from -1.9%). In fact, PR spending rose at the strongest pace in five years.

Meanwhile, spending cuts were recorded in the final three segments of the Bellwether survey. Other modes of marketing activity not accounted for continued to see budgets cut in the third quarter (net balance of -7.9%, from -6.8%), as did market research (-1.5%, from -2.9%). Notably, after a record expansion in the previous quarter, the latest data indicated a renewed reduction in sales promotions spending (-1.5%, from +13.4%).

Paul Bainsfair, Director General at the IPA, said: “Against a backdrop of economic stagnation and ongoing elevated levels of inflation in the UK, coupled with increasing global geo-political volatility, the trading environment for companies is unquestionably tough. But instead of seeing a re-run of last quarter’s slightly concerning results where companies revised up their short-term sales promotional activity to record amounts while reducing their main media spend, this time we are buoyed to see a more considered, reverse state of affairs. This quarter, those companies that can are heeding the evidence that in general, investing more in main media will help to steady them through the uncertain times and help to ensure the longer-term health and profitability of their brands.”

UK marketing budgets revised up in Q2, says IPA
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Total UK marketing budgets continued to grow at a solid pace in the second quarter of 2022, according to the latest IPA Bellwether Report. Despite this, with strengthening economic headwinds, UK companies’ financial prospects deteriorated sharply, contributing to cuts in adspend forecasts.

The IPA Bellwether Report reveals the marketing spend intentions across the UK’s top industries and in its 22 years of reporting has been one of the first indicators to show both recession and recovery.

According to the Q2 2022 Bellwether data, around a quarter (24.2%) of surveyed companies raised their total marketing expenditure during the second quarter, while 13.4% registered budget cuts. At +10.8%, the resulting net balance remained in solid positive territory, but indicated a slight slowdown in growth when compared to the opening quarter of 2022 (+14.1%).

Events was a key driver of total marketing activity growth, with the latest data signalling another record upward budget revision. At +22.2%, the respective net balance was up from +18.7% previously and the strongest-performing Bellwether category by a considerable margin. The new “living with COVID” normal has given companies the confidence to plan face-to-face events, with many firms reportedly set to use this platform to relaunch their brands. The only other Bellwether category to record growth in Q2 was public relations, which saw its expansion strengthen from the start of the year (net balance of +3.7%, from +0.6%).

Main media – which includes big-ticket advertising campaigns relating to TV – saw marketing budgets stagnate, bringing to an end a year-long sequence of growth. At 0.0%, the net balance was down sharply from +9.4%. Within main media, there were notable differences. While other online (+4.4%, from +18.6%) and video advertising (+0.8%, from +9.0%) growth continued, they both saw steep slowdowns. Audio (-16.4%, from -8.5%) and out of home (-15.9%, from -4.6%) saw downturns deepen, while published brands moved from positive to negative territory (-2.6%, from +1.3%).

Direct marketing was another Bellwether category to stagnate in Q2, also drawing to a close a four-quarter sequence of growth. The remaining monitored marketing activities saw budgets fall in the second quarter. Sales promotions (-0.7% vs. +8.0% previously), market research (-6.5% vs. -3.5% previously) and other marketing activities not already accounted for (-8.3% vs. -0.9% previously) all dragged on total expenditure.

The latest Bellwether survey signalled a broad-based deterioration in financial prospects in the second quarter.

Compared to three months ago, survey respondents became more pessimistic towards their industry-wide financial prospects, with a net balance of -26.7% of companies more downbeat overall. This was the most negative outlook since Q3 2020 and compared with a net balance of -3.6% in the first quarter of the year. While 13.6% of companies were more optimistic, 40.3% expressed gloomier sentiment.

Meanwhile, for the first time since Q3 2020, own-company financial prospects slipped into negative territory. A net balance of -9.5% of companies signalled pessimism regarding their own-company performance, the most downbeat for two years. Underlying data showed that 30.7% of survey respondents were pessimistic towards their own business prospects, compared to 21.2% that were more optimistic.

Since the last Report, the IPA Bellwether author, S&P Global Market Intelligence, has downgraded its assessment for UK economic growth prospects in 2023 through to 2025, which in turn has seen it downgrade its adspend growth forecasts over this period too. It has also cut its adspend growth forecast for 2022 to reflect the strengthening economic headwinds that have built up through the year.

Elevated inflation throughout 2022 points to a bigger hit on consumer confidence and disposable incomes. High costs for businesses will also weigh on the economy, while rising interest rates act to deter investment. The risk of a recession has intensified, and as such, it has cut its adspend forecast for this year to 1.6% (from 3.5% previously).

Much of the economic challenges seen at present are likely to spill over into 2023. With interest rates also set to rise further and households and businesses likely to remain in cost-containment mode until inflation comes down, S&P’s GDP forecast for 2023 has been cut from 1.2% to 0.5%, bringing down its adspend growth forecast from 1.8% to 0.8%.

With the growth path beyond 2023 now looking more uncertain amid the potential for these strong downside risks to persist, 2024, 2025 and 2026 adspend growth forecasts have also been trimmed to 1.4% (from 1.7%), 2.0% (from 2.2%) and 2.3% (from 2.4%) respectively.

UK marketing spend stagnates as Brexit takes its toll
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A six-year run of continuous overall UK marketing budget growth came to an end in Q4 2018, with a net balance of +0.0% of marketing executives signalling no change in budgets during the fourth quarter.

That’s according to the latest IPA Bellwether Report, which says that while some marketers reported growth (+16%), this was completely offset by others observing spending cuts (-16%).

In addition, roughly two-thirds of panel members reported no revision to their total marketing budgets. Evidence from some marketers highlighted some optimism for the coming year, with new product launches, expansion into overseas markets, digital transformation and technological development all expected to bring growth opportunities.

However, political and economic uncertainty caused by the ongoing Brexit negotiation process has dampened both business and consumer confidence, driving belt-tightening and restricting resources available to marketing executives.

The shift towards digital modes of advertising remained apparent during Q4, although growth moderated noticeably, as signalled by the net balance for internet falling to +2.1%, from +13.6% in the third quarter (within internet, search/SEO dropped from +5.8% in Q3 to -3.9% marking the first cut since Q2 2009; mobile advertising budgets were also revised down to -2.4% from +1.9% in Q3).

However, it was budgets for sales promotions that marketing executives enjoyed the greatest upward revisions for, with the net balance increasing to +3.8% from +0.6% in Q3. Events budgets also saw a slight increase (net balance of +2.6% from -1.1%), however panellists observed cuts to the remaining categories monitored by the Bellwether survey.

The first downward revision for two quarters was seen for main media advertising, which includes large-scale campaigns on TV and in newspapers. The net balance fell to -6.5% from +4.8%. Direct marketing (-5.6% from -7.4%), market research (-4.7% from – 3.7%), and PR budgets (-4.1% from +4.2%) were also areas of marketing that companies experienced a squeeze on spending.

Looking towards the 2019/20 financial year, preliminary data from the Bellwether panel indicated a near-neutral stance on overall marketing spend for the coming budget period. The proportion of marketers anticipating increased marketing expenditure (27%) was only marginally higher than that for those predicting cuts (26%), yielding a net balance of just +0.8%.

However, drilling down into the individual budget plans for each Bellwether category revealed a fairly negative outlook. A number of marketers expressed concern towards the adverse impact of Brexit-driven economic and political uncertainty on both consumer and business confidence. In some cases, there was evidence that the potential for a more challenging corporate environment was set to restrict financial resources available to marketing executives.

Paul Bainsfair, Director General at the IPA, said: “In uncertain political and economic times such as these, the understandable reaction for some advertisers is to lose confidence in brand building advertising and to think short term even to the point of heavily discounting their products and services. We’ve seen this on and offline in the run up to Christmas – and now see the impact in black and white in this latest Bellwether Report. We know from the research we have done into what builds and what destroys brands – and it is proven – that too much short-term sales promotion activity destroys brand value in the long term. Marketers need to weather this turbulent period and think ahead. Now is the time to be bold, to keep up their share of voice and, if they can, increase it to grow their share of market. Businesses that rely on the strength of their brands need to follow the general 60:40 (brand building vs activation spend) rule of thumb.”

Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit and author of the Bellwether Report, said: “The slowdown in marketing budget growth seen in recent quarters culminated in Q4, as the six-year bullrun came to an end. Company-wide indecisiveness restricted the allocation of resources to marketers, as the wait-and-see approach to how the Brexit process will transpire appears to be the current strategy in place for many UK businesses. “The neutral stance on marketing budgets came in tandem with a first pessimistic outlook by businesses towards their own companies’ financial prospects for the first time since 2012, suggesting that top-level belt-tightening and plans to protect margins has seen marketing executives be given less discretion. Indeed, provisional data for budgets for the coming 2019/20 financial year indicate that downbeat stance seems likely to persist.”

James Goddard, Chief Executive, JJ Marketing, said: “This early part of 2019 is inevitably a time when uncertainty reigns but it’s no good standing still and weeping into your spreadsheets. For one thing, there remain areas of optimism, including digital transformation and the opportunities provided by technology. And, it’s now more important than ever for agencies to be able to react quickly to change. In the coming 12 months, expecting the unexpected will be crucial. Therefore, we need to focus on being flexible and innovative. Add strategy, creativity and accountability on top and taking advantage of a changing landscape will be more achievable than you might expect.”

Tom George, CEO, GroupM and Chair of the IPA Media Futures Group, said: “By the time the latest Bellwether report is published, we will know the outcome of parliament’s vote on the government’s Brexit proposal. Whether this provides any further clarity on a resolution is highly doubtful however. What is clear is that uncertainty is not the friend of economic optimism and the latest Bellwether sentiment reflects this.

“Advertising is also not immune to uncertainty and this is highlighted by a net balance of -6.5% for main media (a scale of decline not seen since 2009) and a softening in the positive sentiment for internet, search & mobile of +2.1%. The good news for the sector is that all commentators still report growth in ad expenditure for 2019 on the back of 6% growth in 2018 – our own GroupM forecasts predicts growth to 4.6% for 2019. Of course, what plays out over the course of the next few months may supress this relative optimism. To continue on a ‘glass half full’ theme, even the most pessimistic estimates I’ve seen for the impact of a no-deal Brexit scenario, don’t approach anywhere near the levels of decline for we witnessed in 2009. Watch this space.’’

Patrick Reid, CEO EMEA, Imagination, said: “As the expectation for brands to create more imaginative experiences grows, the current climate highlights the need for clients to work with a creative partner who can deliver effective, efficient and agile creative solutions. With exciting developments in technology, collaborative ways of working and more rigorous measurement, you can produce powerful experiences which deliver meaningful results despite the constantly evolving landscape.”

Pete Robins, Managing Partner, Agenda21 and Chair of the IPA Digital Media Group, said: “For once in a very long time, overall market pressures have even dented the growth rate of internet reacted spends. However, also worth noting that the prominence of businesses looking to continue or advance their digital transformation, could mean that once these initiatives are sufficiently progressed that growth in connected media channels will be at the forefront of their plans once the uncertainty in the market has acerbated.”

James Pais, IPA Scotland Chair and Creative Services Director at Frame, said: “Last year I commented that the Q4 Bellwether report would make for some interesting reading. I was trying to be optimistic here.

“Alas the uncertainty of Brexit has generated grave concerns and a lack of confidence which as a result meant that the findings in this Bellwether report have a rather pessimistic and downbeat outlook. The predicted reaction for advertisers to reduce their adspend in the later part of 2018 is evident in this report and to misquote D:Ream, things don’t look like they’re going to get better. There is a rather negative outlook to budgeting in 2019/20 with still further concern towards the adverse impact of Brexit on the economy and the effect it will have on both consumer and business confidence.

“So again, the 2019 Q1 Bellwether report will make for some interesting reading, by then hopefully we will have some clarity as to our new relations with the EU. As an optimist I want to be encouraged by the Office for Budget Responsibility projection of a bounceback in business investment, and the Bellwether prediction of an upward revision to adspend forecast for 2019, but I guess we will see in a few months, right?”